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2026
BLANKA BARTÓK 
Changes in solar radiation extremes and their impact on the solar power generation in Europe.
pp: 1 – 16 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.24193/RCJ2026_1| Full text | Suplimentary material
Present study focuses on distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since, the frequencies of these situations have high impact on the electricity generation. The results show a shift in the distributions projected for the period of 2065-2100 based on 56 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations (RCP8.5). In the northern countries a shift towards lower values is detected. The changes are more accentuated in wintertime, when the low extremes are becoming lower by 16%, the high extremes decrease with 8%. These tendencies are detected in the central part of the continent as well, however, the changes are smaller, -10% in case of low values, and 5% for high values. In the southern part of the continent the shift of distribution has opposite direction. In these countries, the low surface solar radiation values are becoming higher by 4% in summertime; on the other hand, there is no significant change in high extremes (+1%). The shift of extreme values might have serious impact on solar power generation, since it could induce even 20-25 extra days with low radiation in the norther regions, while in the southern regions 15-20 extra days with high radiation are projected.
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