STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF HISTORICAL DIKE FAILURE MECHANISM
L. NAGY
ABSTRACT. - Statistical evaluation of historical dike failure mechanism
The failure mechanism of flood protection dikes includes physical (geotechnical,
seepage) processes leading to a dike breach. An awareness of the failure
mechanism is required directly in dike stability calculations and indirectly for
risk calculations. Statistics of historical data indicate among others the
distribution and frequency of failure mechanisms associated with dikes. These
data may be used in estimations of the expected likelihood of occurrence of
non-quantifiable failure mechanisms. In addition to a comparative evaluation of
statistics collected in several countries, this publication also presents data
for the Carpathian Basin. One of the most important conclusions drawn from
statistical information suggests that most dike breaches develop as a
consequence of poor safety strategy.
Keywords:
flood protection dykes, dyke breaches, failure mechanism