HYDROLOGICAL
FORECASTS OF DANUBE FLOOD 2013 BY THE
HUNGARIAN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SERVICE
A. CSÍK, B. GAUZER, B. GNANDT, A. HUNYADY
Abstract. - The significant lead time resulting from the use of the OLSER system of the Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service is of key importance in making timely preparations for flood defence. Due to continuous improvements to the quantitative meteorological forecast models (primarily the generally used ECMWF model) and the OLSER system over the past years, we have by now reached a point where the previously separately managed flood peak forecasting and continuous forecasting can no longer be interpreted independently. Continuous forecasting taking into account precipitation forecasts and monitoring spatial changes of the complex physics-based concentration process also offers a level of accuracy suitable to identify peak values. The flood wave of June 2013 along the Hungarian Danube section exceeded the ever observed highest high water levels everywhere (except for gauge Mohács). The forecasts prepared by HHFS played a crucial role both in terms of lead time and the forecasted water levels.
Key words: hydrological forecast, Danube flood 2013, Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service, OLSER