PROJECTED CHANGES OF CLIMATE MEANS AND VARIABILITY IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE DANUBE CATCHMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE HYDROLOGICAL RISKS
J. MIKA, C. MÁTHÉ, VERA SCHLANGER
ABSTRACT. - Projected Changes Of Climate Means And Variability In The Upper And Middle Danube Catchment With Respect To The Hydrological Risks. Present climate conditions endure a wide set of risks especially for hydrology and water management. The projected changes of climate possibly contribute to some of them with likely increasing extremities in several diurnal and longer-time anomalies. The present study comprises the changes of temperature and precipitation means and of diurnal standard deviations, as projected by 17 contemporary GCMs along a temperate latitude belt, including the Alpine Carpathian region. The 45-50o N belt is selected, exhibiting wide variety of lowlands and mountains, warm and cold sectors of oceans. The MAGICC/SCENGEN version 4.1 software (Wigley et al., 2003) is used to obtain and synchronise the model outputs. The aim of the study is to assess the quality and divergence of regional simulations, and to see the geographical differences within the geographical belt, with special regard to the upper and middle Danube catchment. Results related to 2025 are demonstrated, expecting a moderate IPCC greenhouse-warming scenario. Some hydrological consequences of the projected changes in the behaviour of the means and of the diurnal standard deviations are also outlined. They mainly increase the risks caused by long-term negative and short-term positive extremes of water supply in the Alpine-Carpathian region of our focus.