RISCURILE ĪN CONTEXTUL TRANZIŢIEI DEMOGRAFICE ŞI EPIDEMIOLOGICE
J. BENEDEK, E. SCHULZ
ABSTRACT. - Risks in the context of demographical and epidemiological transition. The main demographical risks are emerging during the transition phase between two demographical systems characterised by stabil levels of mortality and fertility. The transition is related to instability and great threats and risks for different subsystems of the society. The aim of this paper is to offer a broad analysis of the links between demographic and epidemilogical transition and demographical and epidemiological risks related to them. Two complexes of problems are characteristical for the corelations between demographic transition and risks: one is represented by a range of effects determined by the classical demographical transition: demographical pressure in ecological, political and economical instable regions and a high pressure on public systems by the ageing population and the subfertility characterising the second demographical transition in the developed countries. The second complex of problems is related to the epidemiological transition and is demonstrated by three different situations: cholera as a classical infectious disease, variola as officially eradicated disease and SARS as a new emerging disease. All this demonstrates that diffusion of infectious diseases and the risks of their emergence are substantially supported by unprepared administration and unprotected population. Another important conclusion is, that the establishment of modern global communication systems allows not only the rapid flow of persons and goods all over the world, but also allows the rapid and global diffusion of infectious diseases.
CITITI ARTICOLUL IN INTREGIME